Bengals at Browns: 3 keys, predictions

THREE KEYS

1. Establish the run

What made the Bengals' first win against Cleveland a blowout was the breakout performance from Jeremy Hill on the ground. He set a team record for most yards on fewer than 10 carries when he rushed nine times for 168 yards and a touchdown. Hill’s enjoyed a collection of his best days as a pro against the Browns. Especially if snow, slop and wind become part of the equation, the offense will need to take advantage of the ground game. Certainly, more efficient production than the 23 rushes for 33 yards Hill put up last week against the Eagles.

6.3 - Career yards per carry by Hill in five games against Cleveland. Most against any team outside of his one game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. By comparison, Hill averages 3.8 yards per rush against the Steelers and 3.3 against the Ravens.

3.2 - Take away the game against Cleveland where Hill went wild earlier this year and he’s averaging only 3.2 yards per carry. In the other 11 games he has 161 carries for 509 yards.

2. No turnovers

The Browns are so overmatched in personnel the only chance at a win comes in forcing a couple turnovers to swing the momentum and find scores in unlikely situations. The Bengals fumbled twice this past week against Philadelphia, but Andy Dalton didn’t throw an interception. Dalton was coming off four consecutive weeks with a pick. If the offense comes out with a clean turnover sheet, this should be an easy win.

3 - The Bengals and Browns are tied for last in the league in fewest fumbles taken away with three. By comparison, three teams are tied for the NFL lead with 11.

14 - The Bengals are tied for second in the NFL with 14 interceptions. Only San Diego (15) has more. They are just shy of their pace from last year where they picked off 21 passes.

3. Start fast

The Browns come off a bye where they had two weeks to think about their desire to avoid the second winless season in NFL history. The Bengals are the most winnable game left on their schedule by the numbers. An early lead to serve as a surge of energy through not only the Browns but the entire Factory of Sadness. If Cincinnati can jump out to an early start as they did against Philadelphia, the game can quickly turn into another rout.

67-3 - Combined score of the last two Bengals games in Cleveland, both played during the first two weeks of December. Cincinnati pitched a 30-0 shutout at the Browns in 2014, Johnny Manziel’s first start and 37-3 Bengals victory came last year. The last touchdown scored by Cleveland against the Bengals was a 1-yard throw from Brian Hoyer to Chris Ogbonnaya in the fourth quarter in 2013.

4 - Number of quarterbacks that have started a game for the Browns since Johnny Manziel won their last game in 2015. Those are Robert Griffin III (1), Josh McCown (3), Cody Kessler (8) and Austin Davis (2).

Predictions

Paul Dehner Jr: Bengals 30, Browns 13

Had the Bengals lost again last week against the Eagles, the feeling would be mighty uneasy heading up I-75. Instead, the domination against Philadelphia feels more like the momentum boost this club badly needed over the course of the season to find their stride. The defense returned to 2015 form with Vontaze Burfict playing the best football of his career and looking like one of the best defenders in the game right now. The offense should be able to stay on track against a relatively toothless Browns pass rush. If Jeremy Hill and Rex Burkhead can find even a tiny bit of the dominating ground game they established in the first game of the year, this one shouldn’t be close. I think it goes that way and the Browns start to face the reality that 0-16 is probably inevitable.

Jim Owczarski: Bengals 17, Browns 10

It’s supposed to snow pretty heavily on Sunday Cleveland, and with the usual wind off Lake Erie and the natural grass field that will get all chopped up, I think the going will be slow for a Bengals offense that can’t really run the ball that well. Jeremy Hill usually eats up the Browns and I think he’ll find some success, but I also don’t see the 170-yard effort from late October in the sun and on the turf of Paul Brown Stadium. I think this will play out like many Browns games, where Hue Jackson puts something ridiculous together offensively for the better part of a half before the Bengals figure it out and eventually turn the Browns away – but I think the elements keep this closer than it would be otherwise. The Bengals defense has been playing better of late, and no amount of magic from Jackson can make the Browns block better or have Robert Griffin III look like it’s his first game since the opening week of the season.