As MLB trade deadline nears, contenders must be willing to part with prospects

They are called prospects, minor-league players who one day have a chance to play in the big leagues.

Some will make it.

A few will become stars.

Most will be out of the game in a few years, forgotten as if they never existed.

You see, for every John Smoltz who was moved as a prospect at the trade deadline, there’s many more John Bucks and Mark Teahens, farmhands that were supposed to bolster a franchise's future while someone like Carlos Beltran leads their new team to short-lived glory.

For every David Price who’s traded at the deadline and leads the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers into the playoffs, there are countless veterans traded who never make a difference.

And for every Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier traded, there’s a World Series banner hanging at Wrigley Field, and an American League pennant flag waving in Cleveland.

This is the week contenders have to ask themselves whether they want a chance to be on the cover of Baseball America with the best farm system, or on the cover of Sports Illustrated celebrating a World Series championship?

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You think the folks in Los Angeles will be content with a fifth consecutive NL West division championship if they fall short of the World Series for the 30th consecutive season?

How about in Houston? Think they’ll be wildly celebrating a 110-victory season if they’re sitting home early in October, still looking for the first championship in franchise history?

The Dodgers had a chance to acquire David Price or Cole Hamels two years ago at the trade deadline, and passed. They still have those prospects teams coveted - with shortstop Corey Seager becoming a two-time All-Star and pitcher Julio Urias undergoing major shoulder surgery - but no pennant.

The Astros could have traded the past eight months for Chris Sale or Jose Quintana of the Chicago White Sox, but passed.

Now, they each have clubhouses clamoring for their front offices to make moves. The Dodgers want Yu Darvish of Texas, along with at least another reliever. The Astros want Sonny Gray of Oakland, or at least one more reliever themselves.

Sure, there are no guarantees that any trade will be the elixir. Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo cringes when he sees hard-throwing Felipe Rivero, who they traded a year ago to the Pittsburgh Pirates for All-Star closer Mark Melancon. If the Nats still had Rivero, they would never have had the need to bolster their bullpen last week by grabbing Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson from Oakland.

The Melancon move only flopped because the Nats lost a heartbreaking Game 5 of the Division Series to the Dodgers, keeping them winless in postseason round play. Yet, the Nat had no choice but to get a closer last year, and Melancon was the best available. It was a move that had to be made.

If you ask Boston Red Sox GM David Dombrowski if he regrets trading hard-throwing prospect Randy Johnson back in 1989 to the Seattle Mariners for Mark Langston, the answer is a resounding no. The Montreal Expos were going for the playoffs, and Langston nearly got him there, going 12-9 with a 2.39 ERA, pitching 176 2/3 innings. It just turned out that Johnson made the Hall of Fame.

The Toronto Blue Jays, under former GM Alex Anthopoulos, were sitting in fourth place, 50-51, and eight games back in 2015, when he decided to go for the jugular. He acquired All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and veteran reliever LaTroy Hawkins on July 28 from the Colorado Rockies, and doubled down two days later by grabbing Price from the Detroit Tigers. They added outfielder Ben Revere and reliever Mark Lowe the final day.

The Blue Jays promptly won 43 of their next 61 games, won the AL East by six games, and came within two games of winning the American League pennant. They completely changed the landscape in Toronto, energizing a dormant fan base. Toronto drew an American League–leading 3.39 million fans a year ago and is leading the AL this year with 1.8 million fans.

Oh, and of those 11 prospects the Blue Jays traded away, only Rockies starter Jeff Hoffman (6-6 with a 5.03 in 20 career games) is remotely having the type of success anyone projected.

And too often, a prospect ends up panning out long after the acquiring team gave up on him. The Texas Rangers went for it in 2010, sending Justin Smoak to the Seattle Mariners as the centerpiece of a package for Cliff Lee. 

Lee pitched the Rangers past the Yankees and into the World Series. Smoak did blossom into an All-Star - seven years later, for the Blue Jays, three years after the Mariners waived him.

“It’s crazy the way some clubs regard prospects now,’’ said one high-ranking club executive. “They’re like stocks. They don’t hold their value forever. Some stocks rise, some go to zero at the end of the year. We’re calling every young player a prospect, when the truth is there’s very few true prospects. It’s not like owning a house. The value doesn’t always hold. They’re not prospects forever.

“It comes down to whether you want to win now, like the Cubs and Indians did last year, or you just want to hold onto your prospects. No matter what those prospects do in the future, the Cubs don’t win a World Series and the Indians don’t get to the World Series without moving them.’’

In the words of Cubs president Theo Epstein: “If not now, when?’’

The Cubs, who were going to win the NL Central with or without closer Aroldis Chapman last year, traded Torres for three months of Chapman.

If not for the Chapman trade, the Cubs still are looking for their first World Series title in 109 years.

And if the Cubs don’t trade away top prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease two weeks ago for White Sox ace Jose Quintana, they don’t win eight of their first nine games since the All-Star break, vaulting into a first place tie in the NL Central.

The Indians badly needed pitching help last year, and if they don’t acquire All-Star reliever Andrew Miller from the Yankees in a package that included Frazier, they may not reach the postseason. Without Miller, they had zero chance of reaching Game 7 of the World Series.

Today, the Indians are in first place in the AL Central, having sold more tickets than they did all of last year. And they still are seeking to trade prospects for reinforcements, just missing out on Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez before he was traded to Arizona.

The Diamondbacks and Rockies, each who realistically have only a chance at a wild-card berth with the Dodgers running away with the NL West division, realize that this is an opportunity that may not exist in a year. The Rockies are likely going to lose All-Star closer Greg Holland. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, both teams' respective franchise players, are only guaranteed to be around through 2019.

Make no mistake about it, they are going for it.

The Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers are as stunned as their contemporaries that they’re hovering around the leader board. They’re not about to rip up their farm system and abandon their future. Yet, they’re still willing to trade at least mid-level prospects for a shot at the playoffs.

If not now, when?

The Dodgers, particularly now that three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is sidelined once again with lower back issues, must acquire a front-line starter. If they don’t believe in Gray with his history of injuries, then it’s Darvish, providing he even hits the market. If not Darvish, there’s former Cy Young winner Justin Verlander of the Tigers, with the Cubs lurking with preliminary talks.

Certainly, the Dodgers could find a spot for starter Lance Lynn, a pending free agent who the St. Louis Cardinals are expected to trade.

The Dodgers may be set up nicely for the future with their array of young talent, but their worst nightmare could be just around the corner, too. Kershaw has an opt-out clause in his contract after the 2018 season, which he is expected to exercise, testing the free-agent waters.

If the Dodgers want to keep their future Hall of Famer, it’s not a matter of giving him more money, but merely providing him a better chance to pitch in the World Series. No one wants to become the next Felix Hernandez, the Seattle Mariners’ six-time All-Star and Cy Young winner who has yet to pitch in the postseason.

Sure, winning can come at a price, too. The New York Mets traded away future All-Star pitcher Michael Fulmer to the Tigers in 2015, but Yoenis Cespedes led the Mets to the pennant. They lost to the Kansas City Royals in the World Series, who traded five prospects for starter Johnny Cueto and second baseman Ben Zobrist to win their first championships.

But go ahead, ask them if they have any regrets. Ask Brian Sabean if he regrets consistently flipping prospects to fortify three eventual World Series winners, with only Zack Wheeler (traded for Beltran in a failed 2013 playoff bid) truly coming back to haunt him.

This is the lightning round of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and soon, we’ll know what every team is thinking.

The Pirates, who may have been sellers two weeks ago, have declared they will go for it now that they’re only three games back in the NL Central. The Royals, who looked like sellers two months ago, will keep the band together for one last hurrah now that they’re poised to either win the AL Central or a wild-card berth. And if the Rangers keep playing like they did in sweeping three games from the Tampa Bay Rays, Darvish just may not be going anywhere.

It’s the week that contenders and teams on the bubble must look in the mirror, and ask the one simple question:

If not now, when?

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