Why Mike Trout’s AL MVP chances are better than you think
A generational talent leads the American League in almost every meaningful offensive category, but finds his Most Valuable Player chances diminished by multiple Boston Red Sox standouts bound for the postseason, combined with the fact his team finishes more than 20 games out in the AL West.
Mike Trout in 2016? Yes.
But also, Alex Rodriguez in 2003 - and A-Rod, playing for a Texas Rangers club that lost 91 games, managed to make off with his first of three MVP trophies.
Rodriguez’s conquest may prove instructive for Trout’s candidacy as the Los Angeles Angels outfielder aims for a second MVP award.
Nightengale: MLB's 2016 award winners
You know the drill by now: Trout, the consensus best player in the majors since his debut in 2012, could have had four MVP trophies on his mantle before his 25th birthday. Instead, he has a unanimous MVP in 2014 and three runner-up finishes, causing consternation among those who prefer statistical purity over championship narratives.
The script looks the same in 2016. Trout leads the AL in – take a deep breath - WAR (10.5), on-base percentage (.441), win probability added (6.5), walks and runs (123). His .556 slugging and .997 OPS rank second to Boston’s David Ortiz, and his 27 stolen bases are tied for fourth, and tops among likely MVP candidates.
With one more home run, he’ll also have a traditional stat line to warm many an old school heart: a .318 average, 30 home runs, 100 RBI.
Despite his best efforts, Trout’s Angels have lost 87 games, though they did sew up fourth place in the West by sweeping Oakland this week. That standing will hurt him with many voters, and perhaps disqualify him altogether for others.
Yet, Trout will get a boost from the American League landscape this season.
Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts will provide his stiffest competition: He’s second to Trout in WAR (9.4), has an AL-best 355 total bases and a similar power-speed combo: a .320 average, 31 homers, 112 RBI, 26 stolen bases and an AL-best 2.8 defensive WAR.
In Boston, however, Betts has plenty of company.
Four of the AL’s top 18 players in WAR are Red Sox – Betts, Dustin Pedroia and Jackie Bradley Jr. (tied for 13th at 5.6 each) and Ortiz (4.9); no other team has more than two. While some voters might prefer Ortiz’s raw power numbers (37 homers, AL-best 1.022 OPS) over Betts, it’s unlikely they’d vote the DH over the center fielder.
Still, that Betts had plenty of “help” in lifting the Red Sox to the AL East title might give some voters pause to place him atop their ballot.
And so it is in Toronto, where reigning MVP Josh Donaldson – fourth in WAR, 37 homers – has a strong running mate in Edwin Encarnacion (42 homers, AL-best 127 RBI). Baltimore third baseman Manny Machado’s 6.8 WAR and 36 homers are pretty, but he’s surrounded by sluggers at Camden Yards. West and Central champs Texas and Cleveland can offer up Adrian Beltre and Francisco Lindor, but their overall numbers are dwarfed by this crowd.
Trout represents singular, historic greatness on a team going nowhere – just like A-Rod in 2003. In his final season in Texas – a year during which he later admitted taking anabolic steroids - Rodriguez hit 47 home runs, won a Gold Glove at shortstop and led the AL with a .600 slugging percentage. He also accrued 8.4 WAR, a stat not readily available at the time.
He also benefited from a lack of consensus.
A-Rod received just six first-place votes – fewest for an AL MVP since 1957, when Mickey Mantle’s six helped him outpoint Ted Williams and his five first-place votes.
Rodriguez was one of 10 players to receive first-place votes, with runner-up Carlos Delgado of Toronto and third place Jorge Posada of the New York Yankees each receiving five. Ortiz, in his first season as the Big Papi the world came to know, received four first place votes and finished fifth, followed by Red Sox teammates Manny Ramirez and Nomar Garciaparra.
Those Red Sox came within a game of the World Series. A-Rod’s Rangers, hamstrung by a terrible pitching staff, finished last, yet Rodriguez still got his MVP, finally snagging the game’s top award in his fourth season leading the AL in WAR.
Sound familiar?
This could be Trout. He’ll have one more series, against Houston, to buff out his resume before ballots are submitted early next week by members of the Baseball Writers Association of America.
And this time, finishing second on many ballots may be just the thing to push him to No. 1 overall.
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