Hillary Clinton holds 7-point lead over Trump in Michigan in new poll

WASHINGTON – Despite visits to Michigan in recent weeks, Republican Donald Trump continues to trail Democrat Hillary Clinton in the state by a wide margin, with a poll released Thursday showing her ahead by 7 percentage points even though many voters remain concerned about her trustworthiness.

The poll released by Suffolk University in Boston to USA TODAY  and the Free Press showed Clinton continuing to hold substantial leads among women and minority voters in Michigan that helped put her ahead of Trump 44%-37% overall.

For his part, Trump led among male voters and white voters, but not by enough to make up the difference.

“It’s a solid lead (for Clinton),” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center, who noted that she also holds a 54%-28% lead in southeastern Michigan, the most-populated part of the state. “She’s winning in all the right places. ... She doesn’t have to win a lot of counties in Michigan to prevail.”

Trump’s campaign has given every indication since the end of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland last month that Michigan is a battleground, giving two speeches in the state, including one to the Detroit Economic Club on Aug. 8 and another outside Lansing last week. His campaign also is talking about another visit to Detroit early next month with former presidential candidate Dr. Ben Carson, who is advising the campaign and grew up in the city.

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But the Suffolk poll — for which 500 likely voters were surveyed from Monday through Wednesday of this week — indicated that Trump continues to struggle in the state, especially among female voters, who supported Clinton 54%-32%. Men, who made up a slightly smaller voting bloc than women, favored Trump 43%-33%.

The poll asked voters for presidential preferences among six candidates to be listed on the Nov. 8 ballot and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, though that figure would be larger for subgroups. Its results should not be compared directly to those from EPIC-MRA reported by the Free Press this month that also showed a lead for Clinton, because of differences between pollsters.

Clinton’s lead over Trump among minority voters in Michigan — 74%-10% — comes as Trump has made overtures to black voters in Detroit and elsewhere around the U.S. Speaking to a mostly-white audience in Dimondale last Friday, Trump urged black voters to swing their support to him, saying, “You live in poverty. Your schools are no good. You have no jobs. What the hell do you have to lose?"

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Trump’s comments were widely panned by Democrats and some black leaders, as were earlier comments comparing Mexicans to rapists and criminals. It is widely accepted that in Michigan and other potential swing states, he’ll need to cut into Clinton’s lead among minority voters to win. Michigan hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George Bush in 1988.

As expected, Trump led among white voters, 47%-33%, a margin slightly larger than the 11-point lead Republican nominee Mitt Romney had in Michigan according to exit polls in 2012 when he lost the state by 9 percentage points to President Barack Obama.

But there were also indications that Trump isn’t doing as well as he otherwise might with some voters. Among voters from households with guns, Trump led Clinton 45%-34%, but that was swamped by her support — 53%-30% — among the slightly larger number of homes without guns.

That breakdown was even more stark when looking at gender differences in households with and without guns:

In households with guns, men supported Trump 48%-26%; but it was a virtual tie among women in those households, with Clinton leading 43%-42%. In households without guns, Clinton led with both men (42%-37%) and, by a significant amount, with women (62%-24%).

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That suggests double trouble for Trump, who needs greater support among men, gun-owning or not, if he is to win in Michigan.

“Given that she’s winning among men in non-gun-owning households, that’s a problem (for Trump),”  Paleologos said. “She’s doing a lot better among her base of women than he is among gun-toting males.”

Clinton also staked leads among households with a labor union member, 57-30%, while it was a virtual tie, 40%-39%, among nonunion households.

Trump, on the other hand, had a lead among self-described independents, 44%-26%, though a large number, 13%, were backing Libertarian Gary Johnson and a similar number described themselves as undecided.

Despite her lead, however, voters doubted Clinton’s trustworthiness in the face of continued reports of e-mails that showed Clinton Foundation donors may have had extra access to her while she was secretary of state. Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed — 63% — said Clinton was not trustworthy, including 56% of the women surveyed.

That overall number was even higher than that for Trump, with 53% of those polled saying he was untrustworthy. Still, when those who said they would not vote for either were asked whether Trump or Clinton would be their second choice, Clinton got more of them — 24%; Trump got 17%.

Contact Todd Spangler: 703-854-8947 or  tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @tsspangler.